Predicting NBA Playoff Berths: FiveThirtyEight vs Betting Markets 2021-12-17 TLDR: FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts of NBA playoff berths seem to hold-up OK against betting markets. If you trust them, you should consider betting against the Lakers right now. In The Virtues and … stringr dplyr glue gt rvest janitor lubridate purrr tidyr readr fs broom
Quantile Regression Forests for Prediction Intervals 2021-04-21 In this post I will build prediction intervals using quantile regression, more specifically, quantile regression forests. This is my third post on prediction intervals. Prior posts: […] This … workflows ggplot yardstick gt forcats scales pander
Simulating Prediction Intervals 2021-04-05 Part 1 of my series of posts on building prediction intervals used data held-out from model training to evaluate the characteristics of prediction intervals. In this post I will use hold-out data to … workflows devtools gt ggplot forcats scales pander
Understanding Prediction Intervals 2021-03-18 Prediction intervals provide a measure of uncertainty for predictions on individual observations. This post… […] This is the first of three posts on prediction intervals (Part 2 employs … AmesHousing dplyr rsample recipes gt parsnip workflows ggplot yardstick stringr tidyr forcats scales pander
Weighting Confusion Matrices by Outcomes and Observations 2020-12-08 Weighting in predictive modeling may take multiple forms and occur at different steps in the model building process. […] The focus of this post is on the last stage1. I will describe two types … ggplot dplyr rsample parsnip probably yardstick devtools purrr knitr tidyr
Undersampling Will Change the Base Rates of Your Model's Predictions 2020-11-23 TLDR: In classification problems, under and over sampling1 techniques shift the distribution of predicted probabilities towards the minority class. If your problem requires accurate probabilities you … ggplot dplyr purrr tidyr knitr modelr yardstick
